London Stock Exchange Event Recap: Business in a Challenging Democratic Age

Page recently hosted a member event at the London Stock Exchange, that delved into today’s evolving political and digital climate and the challenges it creates for communicators. 

Geopolitical tensions were a major theme, with speakers reflecting on how global power dynamics — particularly between the U.S., China, and Russia — are reshaping business strategies and influencing corporate decision-making.  Speakers from business, government and journalism — emphasised the interconnected nature of business, technology, and politics in an era where adaptability and foresight are crucial for success. Here are some Chatham House observations from the session:

Post-COVID-19 Isolationism

Key Takeaway: Nations are grappling with post-pandemic isolationist tendencies, balancing global leadership with domestic priorities.

The event highlighted how post-pandemic isolationism is shaping business strategy. The U.S. is caught between global leadership and growing domestic concerns, with a strong focus on economic issues, healthcare, and immigration. Despite political divisions, there is unity on taking a tough stance against China. 

In contrast, the U.K. under new leadership is adopting a more outward-facing strategy, aiming to strengthen trade relations to regain its global trading position. Those close to the new UK government believe that our trade focus should be on prioritising solid relationships with specific target countries where the relationship can thrive. The U.K. would benefit from rediscovering a place in the world as a trading nation, rather than simply a diplomatic ally. 

Fragmentation Bringing Complexity to Communications

Key Takeaway: Increasing complexity is making it harder for companies to unify messaging across diverse regions.

Can companies still unify their messaging across different countries, or is it inevitable that communications will become increasingly fragmented? According to one speaker, governments should be seen as more than passive entities but active forces that can impact business significantly across various regions — the complexity of addressing diverse stakeholders is growing.

Business leaders need to connect the dots between a wide range of stakeholders — investors, politicians, media, employees and customers — leaning into communicators for support.  And rather than focusing solely on messaging, companies should centre their efforts on reinforcing their values.

In today’s real-time environment, where the traditional news cycle no longer really exists, managing stakeholders — each with varying degrees of influence depending on the organisation — has become the key task. “It's less about sending a singular message and more about managing complex relationships with a broad range of audiences.”

Navigating Geopolitical Risk

Key Takeaway: Businesses must now treat geopolitical risks as key management decisions, not niche concerns.

All speakers at this session agreed that approaches to geopolitical risk vary across sectors, with business communities striving to navigate these complexities as best they can. U.S./China trade relations were cited as an example. Some U.S. firms derive up to 50% of their revenues from China, while many Fortune 20 firms rely heavily on Chinese supply chains. This reality makes decoupling from China much more challenging in practice than it may appear from a political standpoint.

Businesses are increasingly aware of the need to navigate the geopolitical landscape with caution. Five years ago, geopolitical risk was a niche concern; companies typically deferred such matters to their government relations teams, according to one of the speakers. Today, organisations are seeking comprehensive briefings on geopolitical issues, recognising them as critical management decisions. It was pointed out that this can be seen in the shift from 10-year roadmaps to two- to three-year plans, reflecting a more adaptive and immediate approach to a rapidly changing global environment.

Political vs. Economic Disconnect

Key Takeaway: While politics drives significant market uncertainty, businesses and stock markets often operate independently of political turbulence.

Current geopolitical dynamics appear primarily economically driven. It was pointed out that the U.S. government has sanctioned more than a thousand companies over the last four years, significantly impacting various sectors.  The impact of this was acknowledged, particularly in industries like semiconductors. While many sanctioned companies may feel little immediate effect, these actions serve as strong signals to the domestic audience, underscoring the complexities of navigating the intersection of geopolitics and business.

Shifting Global Networks and Power Bases

Key Takeaway: Emerging markets are reshaping global business, with demographic and economic trends signalling long-term shifts in power.

All panellists agreed that the ‘world order’ is shifting, as established post-WWII networks erode and emerging markets gain influence. Africa’s population is expected to double in the next 15 to 20 years, while South America’s natural resources position it as a potential global food supplier. Indonesia’s rapid growth, especially in the tech sector, further underscores the importance of businesses preparing for long-term global changes. Corporate affairs professionals must anticipate these shifts to stay ahead of evolving global dynamics.

Scenario Planning for the US Election

Key Takeaway: Corporate boards are prioritising scenario planning over forecasting to prepare for unpredictable outcomes in anticipation of the U.S. election.

Businesses are focusing on how tariff and economic policy changes may affect their global strategies, preparing for the potential impacts of either administration, as Kamala Harris’s policies would likely maintain continuity with Joe Biden’s administration, while a Donald Trump victory could introduce more unpredictability in international relations, especially with Russia and China. And while markets typically favour stability, the ambiguity surrounding Donald Trump’s policies complicates predictions, it was said. 

Going forward

Above all, the evening underscored the need for businesses to remain agile and informed as they navigate today’s complex and rapidly changing landscape. As global dynamics shift and evolve, communicators must help business leaders prepare to adapt and respond to challenges swiftly and strategically.